We have the final CPI that may be used for a July 2026 rate change (2.613%), and the calculated density factor from the ACR (2.190%), together they total 4.803%. USPS has an additional cap space (sometimes called the ‘gray bar’) that is determined based on the amount of promotions and incentives paid out for the preceding year as compared to the year prior. That number has fluctuated in estimation from November until now based on the Mail Growth Incentive reconciliation and factoring in the new Add Ons. The estimate is currently +0.2% on First-Class Mail, and +0.9% on Marketing Mail. I have been told we will hear the final estimate at MTAC next week, but that has not significantly changed.
This brings the estimate for Marketing Mail 5.70% below is a visual display of 2023-2026.
And for First-Class 5.01%, below is a visual display of 2023-2026.
Timing for 2026 Rates
December 29th, 2025 – USPS published the Annual Compliance Determination Report (ACR)
March 11th, 2026 – The February CPI-U will be announced. This is the last of the 12 month rolling average USPS can use. (2.631%)
March 30th, 2026 – PRC will issue the Annual Compliance Determination Report. (ACD). USPS cannot file a price filing until this is published.
Between April 1-9 (likely April 8th or 9th) – USPS will file for a July 2026 postage increase.
April 10th, 2026 – The March CPI-U will be announced, the price filing must be filed prior to this date.
Between May 1-12, 2026 – The PRC will open a docket and accept comments in this time period. They should only be addressed if USPS is compliant with the law.
By May 25, 2026 – The PRC after their review will remand the price case back to USPS if not compliant, or will approve the proposal.
July 12, 2026 – USPS plans to implement the Market Dominant Price change.
Postage Projections Beyond 2026….
Based on current regulations.
- CPI-U Projections are from Global Insights and will go up or down with inflationary changes.
- Density Factor is based on increase in delivery points (approximately 1 – 2 million annually), and the decline in mail volume.
- ○ The higher year number in July 2027 is due to the decline in FY26 volume over FY25 that had high political mail volume.
- As of now the USPS is restricted to one price increase annually.
We expect to see more changes to the factors allowed in rate setting over the next 12-18 months, but cannot forecast what those may be.
