At the July Mailers Technical Advisory Committee (MTAC) meetings USPS Vice President of Pricing and Costing Sharon Owens shared a bar graph of forecasted postage figures for 2026 and 2027.  

As it stands today, there is 0.806% of available rate authority.  USPS is planning for a January 2026 increase that would include the next two months of CPI, possibly bringing the available authority to about 1.2%.  The last CPI they would use is the August figure that gets announced on September 11th (we would then know the final 6-month CPI).  In order to do a January increase the Postal Service would need to file the rate change before October 15th when the next CPI is released.  

Based on current regulations in July the Postal Service would still have the density factor and non-compensatory surcharge allowed, but the retirement factor is removed.

Current estimates are that the density factor would be about 2.6%, and the CPI another 1.2%, bringing total less any non compensatory surcharge for July to 3.8%.  

That does not include any of the “additional claimed cap space” USPS will have from mailer use of promotions and incentives.  The amount used in July 2025 was 0.715% – 3.015%.  The Postal Service does not think that a July 2026 number would be as high, but they can’t provide rough estimates this early.  

There are caveats that need to be noted with these figures. The open dockets and new rule activity at the Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC) can have significant impact on the dates and scope of the next increase.  

(1). The MC2025-1483 Mail Classification filing contains material changes to Market Dominant Mail that USPS would like to include in a January price change, but these have yet to be approved.  

The key changes included are:

• Zoned Pricing for Origin-Entered Marketing and Periodical Mail
• Simplification of Outside-County Periodical Pricing.
• Elimination of ADC/AADC pricing and sort levels. 

If these are not approved by early October, USPS would not be able to include these proposed changes in a January price change.  

(2). On June 9th the PRC issued rules 8891, 8892, and 8893 under docket RM2024-4.  

These were phase one of a phased approach of the Statutory Review of the System for Regulating Rates and Classes for Market Dominant Products.  

The new rules from 8893 include:

• USPS being limited to generally one rate change per fiscal year (Oct 1 – Sept 30).
  • “generally” meaning that there would be an exception to the once annual if they chose to do a rate decrease or a de minimus filing, rate neutral.  
• The rule is written and comments were allowed up until July 28th, but until the PRC enacts it, the current rate making rules stay in place.  
• Additionally, the USPS would be prohibited from setting workshare discounts farther away from their avoided costs.  

If the rule is enacted before January a few things could happen.

• USPS could challenge the rule in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, using a few arguments, saying the rule exceeds the PRC’s statutory authority, or their decision making was flawed, or the rule is arbitrary and capricious.  

So it would be questionable if USPS would issue a price change in January 2026 if they then would not be allowed to another until October 1st, 2026.  They may instead hold off in January and issue a price change in July 2026 at an estimated 5% (as it would include the CPI not used in January).

(3). Postal Leadership – the path planned for January was determined under the previous PMG, with new leadership there could be a change in direction.  

(4). The USPS Board of Governors may not approve the postal plans for January or July. 

GrayHair will monitor the PRC activity and alert you of any major filings or rulings concerning the pricing and mail classification.